Saturday, April 26, 2008

ENOC and CRM -- déjà vu?


ENOC and CRM -- Two Birds of a Feather




By: Van Morris posted Feb 28, 2008, 8:09am

Enernoc stock finished off its recent slide with a thump, driven by a conviction to invest for the opportunity.

The sound byte was an earnings miss, which eclipsed a deeper story of fantastic growth and a ballooning backlog. Lag times from sales expenses to revenue recognition are greatest in the congested PJM Region which currently has some of the juciest prices for capacity and energy.

What do ENOC and CRM have in common? From an inside view, they can calculate the Net Present Value of a newly acquired customer, and they can track renewal rates.

I’m reminded of the multiple “you’re spending too much for growth” pullbacks that have occurred in Salesforce.com’s stock history – including the one that came within the first public year.

The risks are different, but the calculus is quite similar, and guide rational internal investment decisions.

The company was on sale at a discount to their IPO price today.

Disclosure: I am now long the stock. Readers should know that our position could change without disclosure or updating this blog.

Saturday, January 5, 2008

Revenue Neutral Carbon Tax: A good idea, but a risky implementation.


Could we ever trust Congress to pass a TRULY REVENUE NEUTRAL tax? If so, a Carbon Tax would be the single most powerful policy initiative to get this country on the right path towards energy independence.

Lets be clear here, we're not talking about using the enviornmental issue to raise taxes.

A REVENUE NEUTRAL carbon tax would mean that energy would be taxed based on its carbon footprint, and any and all dollars collected would be returned as cash to the people.

Here's how it would work, and what the impact would be.

Suppose for a second, that electricity was taxed, and that every citizen who was current on their tax return filings got a quarterly rebate from the government.

If Electricity prices went up enough, consumption behavior would change (as it has in Europe). The economics of conservation would improve, and some of the alternative energy solutions would get closer to economic viability. The persuasive power of the market would be put to work.

A Carbon Tax would be a progressive energy tax. For example an appartment dweller would get the same amount of refund as a large homeowner, even though their energy usage was less. Individuals and consumers that managed electricity would profit at the expense of the wasteful.

But the biggest question is not IF a Carbon Tax would work, but whether or not we can trust Congress to ever pass a tax that is truly REVENUE NEUTRAL. If not, then the envirnonmental benefits it deliver would come via a a path of economic destruction and a lower standard of living.

We support a REVENUE NEUTRAL Carbon Tax but oppose all other forms of Carbon Taxes.

Properly administered, the cost of adminsitration would be a small portion of the grants we're miss-spending trying to achieve the same objective.